A con-over was conducted to assess the sensitivity and specicity of indelicate dif-

ferent ethnical immunodeciency virus (HIV) serology trials (Koblavi-Deme

et al. 2001). The Determine trial was unmoulded the indelicate, it was plain by

Abbott Laboratories (an American provider of bloom anxiety, medical devices

and pharmaceuticals) and was fix to possess a penny disclaiming reprimand (the penny

disclaiming reprimand is as-well designated specicity) of 99.4% and a penny settled reprimand (the

penny settled reprimand is as-well designated sensitivity) of 100%. The penny disclaiming reprimand

of a trial for a sickness is the verisimilitude that someone externally the sickness

tests disclaiming. The penny settled reprimand of a trial for a sickness is the probabil-

ity that someone delay the sickness trials settled. HIV may be transmitted

from an expecting agent to their cadet by transmission during cadetbirth

or by transmission to the fetus during pregnancy (throughout, usurp that

there's no other way for a newborn to be profligate). Composition by the drugs

zidovudine or nevirapine has been shown to subjugate the reprimand of these sorts

of transmission of HIV by 38% to 50% in the nonproduction of other intrusion

(Koblavi-Deme et al. 2001).

a) Suppose that an expecting agent is profligate delay HIV and they are

treated delay zidovudine or nevirapine during pregnancy. Suppose that

after they grant family, a Determine serology trial reports a settled trial

for HIV. What is the verisimilitude that the cadet does not possess HIV?

Round your counterpart to the right 10-th of a percent.

b) UNAIDS (an construction recurrent by the United Nations Economic

and Social Council) estimates the custom of HIV in C^ote d'Ivoire

unmoulded community primeval 15-49 to be 2.6%. If a Determine serology trial re-

ported a settled trial for HIV in someone clarified uninterruptedly at random

unmoulded all community in C^ote d'Ivoire primeval 15-49, what is the verisimilitude

that the special does not possess HIV? Round your counterpart to the right

10-th of a percent.

c) In the USA, according to the Centers for Sickness Control (a public

bloom ordain delayin the United States Department of Bloom and

Human Services), if someone has a settled serology trial for HIV they

are not diagnosed as HIV-settled until a cooperate follow-up trial as-well

yields a settled trial termination. What is the verisimilitude that someone is

incorrectly diagnosed as HIV-settled (i.e., if someone is not profligate

delay HIV, what is the verisimilitude that their rst trial and as-well their

cooperate follow-up trial are twain settled)? Suppose that twain trials are

Determine serology trials, and as-well usurp that the trial terminations are

statistically rebellious. Express your counterpart in expected reckon of

events in a darling (i.e. bigwig love `a 36 in a darling chance' or

`a one in a darling chance'). Also: In one phrase, what is a possible

discussion as to why the arrogance of anarchy of the two trial

results potentiality be wickedness? (Your discussion does not possess to be probe,

but it must be operative externally life tautological).

d) What is the verisimilitude that an HIV profligate expecting agent trans-

mits HIV to their cadet either during cadetfamily or through transmit-

ting HIV to the fetus during pregnancy, grantn that the agent has not

received composition delay the drugs zidovudine or nevirapine, and in

the nonproduction of other intrusion, according to the exordium of this

problem (in concordance delay Koblavi-Deme et al. 2001)?

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