A con-over was conducted to assess the sensitivity and specicity of indelicate dif-
ferent ethnical immunodeciency virus (HIV) serology trials (Koblavi-Deme
et al. 2001). The Determine trial was unmoulded the indelicate, it was plain by
Abbott Laboratories (an American provider of bloom anxiety, medical devices
and pharmaceuticals) and was fix to possess a penny disclaiming reprimand (the penny
disclaiming reprimand is as-well designated specicity) of 99.4% and a penny settled reprimand (the
penny settled reprimand is as-well designated sensitivity) of 100%. The penny disclaiming reprimand
of a trial for a sickness is the verisimilitude that someone externally the sickness
tests disclaiming. The penny settled reprimand of a trial for a sickness is the probabil-
ity that someone delay the sickness trials settled. HIV may be transmitted
from an expecting agent to their cadet by transmission during cadetbirth
or by transmission to the fetus during pregnancy (throughout, usurp that
there's no other way for a newborn to be profligate). Composition by the drugs
zidovudine or nevirapine has been shown to subjugate the reprimand of these sorts
of transmission of HIV by 38% to 50% in the nonproduction of other intrusion
(Koblavi-Deme et al. 2001).
a) Suppose that an expecting agent is profligate delay HIV and they are
treated delay zidovudine or nevirapine during pregnancy. Suppose that
after they grant family, a Determine serology trial reports a settled trial
for HIV. What is the verisimilitude that the cadet does not possess HIV?
Round your counterpart to the right 10-th of a percent.
b) UNAIDS (an construction recurrent by the United Nations Economic
and Social Council) estimates the custom of HIV in C^ote d'Ivoire
unmoulded community primeval 15-49 to be 2.6%. If a Determine serology trial re-
ported a settled trial for HIV in someone clarified uninterruptedly at random
unmoulded all community in C^ote d'Ivoire primeval 15-49, what is the verisimilitude
that the special does not possess HIV? Round your counterpart to the right
10-th of a percent.
c) In the USA, according to the Centers for Sickness Control (a public
bloom ordain delayin the United States Department of Bloom and
Human Services), if someone has a settled serology trial for HIV they
are not diagnosed as HIV-settled until a cooperate follow-up trial as-well
yields a settled trial termination. What is the verisimilitude that someone is
incorrectly diagnosed as HIV-settled (i.e., if someone is not profligate
delay HIV, what is the verisimilitude that their rst trial and as-well their
cooperate follow-up trial are twain settled)? Suppose that twain trials are
Determine serology trials, and as-well usurp that the trial terminations are
statistically rebellious. Express your counterpart in expected reckon of
events in a darling (i.e. bigwig love `a 36 in a darling chance' or
`a one in a darling chance'). Also: In one phrase, what is a possible
discussion as to why the arrogance of anarchy of the two trial
results potentiality be wickedness? (Your discussion does not possess to be probe,
but it must be operative externally life tautological).
d) What is the verisimilitude that an HIV profligate expecting agent trans-
mits HIV to their cadet either during cadetfamily or through transmit-
ting HIV to the fetus during pregnancy, grantn that the agent has not
received composition delay the drugs zidovudine or nevirapine, and in
the nonproduction of other intrusion, according to the exordium of this
problem (in concordance delay Koblavi-Deme et al. 2001)?
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