Fundamental Probability Concepts

Analytical Methods for Business (University of Arizona)

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ch04

Student:

1. For an test in which a individual die is rolled, the illustration quantity may be {1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}. True False

2. The haphazard of a concert of facts can be superior than 1. True False

3. Events are debilitating if they do not portion-out low issues of a illustration quantity. True False

4. Mutually odious facts may portion-out low issues of a illustration quantity. True False

5. Mutually odious and confusedly debilitating facts embrace all issues of a illustration quantity, and they do not portion-out any low issues.

True False

6. The concert of two facts A and B, denoted by , does not entertain issues from twain A and B. True False

7. The supply of an fact A, denoted by AC, amid the illustration quantity S, is the fact consisting of all issues of A that are not in S.

True False

8. The intersection of two facts A and B, denoted by A B, is the fact consisting of all issues that are in A and B.

True False

9. Internal haphazard is assigned to an fact by intent on cork resolution. True False

10. For two recalcitrant facts A and B, the haphazard of their intersection is naught. True False

11. The entirety haphazard administration is suited barely when the perpetual haphazard is explicit in stipulations of probabilities shackled on two mutually odious and debilitating facts.

True False

12. Bayes' theorem uses the entirety haphazard administration to update the previous haphazard of an fact that has not been unnatural by any new attraction.

True False

13. Bayes' theorem is used to update previous probabilities grounded on the coming of new pertinent knowledge. True False

14. Combinations are used when the ordain in which divergent objects are shapely matters. True False

15. Permutations are used when the ordain in which divergent objects are shapely matters. True False

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16. What is haphazard?

A. Any compute among 0 and 1 is constantly treated as a haphazard of an fact.

B. A numerical compute assigned to an fact that measures the number of its adventures.

C. A compute among 0 and 1 assigned to an fact that measures the presumption of its adventure.

D. A compute among 0 and 1 assigned to an fact that measures the unpresumption of its adventure.

17. For an test in which a individual die is rolled, the illustration quantity is .

A. {1, 1, 3, 4, 5, 6}

B. {2, 1, 3, 6, 5, 4}

C. {1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5}

D. All of the above

18. A illustration quantity embraces .

A. Outcomes of the pertinent facts

B. Various issues of an test

C. All likely issues of an test

D. One of various issues of an test

19. What is a unblended fact?

A. An fact that embraces all issues of a illustration quantity

B. An fact that embraces various issues of a illustration quantity

C. An fact that embraces barely one issue of a illustration quantity

D. All of the above

20. Which of the aftercited is not an fact when regarding the illustration quantity of incessant two invents?

A. {HH, HT}

B. {HH, TT, HT}

C. {HH, TT, HTH}

D. {HH, HT, TH, TT}

21. Events are confusedly debilitating if .

A. They include all facts

B. They are interposed in all facts

C. They embrace all issues of an test

D. They do not portion-out any low issues of an test

22. Mutually odious facts .

A. Embrace all likely issues

B. May portion-out low issues

C. Do not portion-out low issues

D. Do not embrace all likely issues

23. Which of the aftercited are mutually odious facts of an test in which two invents are tossed?

A. {TT, HH} and {TT}

B. {HT, TH} and {TH}

C. {TT, HT} and (HT}

D. (TT, HH} and {TH}

24. In an test in which a invent is tossed twice, which of the aftercited personates mutually odious and confusedly debilitating facts?

A. {TT, HH} and {TT, HT}

B. {HT, TH} and {HH, TH}

C. {TT, HH} and {TH, HT}

D. {TT, HT} and {HT, TH}

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25. Which of the aftercited sets of issues vivid adown in I and II personate mutually odious facts?

I. "Your latest succession pace is an A"; "Your latest succession pace is a B."

II. "Your latest succession pace is an A"; "Your latest succession pace is a Pass." A. Neither I nor II personate mutually odious facts.

B. Twain I and II personate mutually odious facts. C. Barely I personates mutually odious facts.

D. Barely II personates mutually odious facts.

26. Mutually odious and confusedly debilitating facts .

A. Embrace all issues in a illustration quantity and may portion-out low issues

B. Embrace all issues in a illustration quantity and do not portion-out low issues

C. Do not entertain to embrace all issues in a illustration quantity but do not portion-out low issues

D. Do not entertain to embrace all issues in a illustration quantity and may portion-out low issues

27. The concert of facts A and B, denoted by , .

A. Contains all issues that are in A or B

B. Contains all issues of an test

C. Contains no issues that are in A and B

D. Consists barely of issues that are in A and B

28. The intersection of facts A and B, denoted by , .

A. Contains issues that are either in A or B

B. Contains issues that are twain in A and B

C. Does not embrace issues that are either in A or B

D. Does not embrace issues that are twain in A and B

29. The intersection of facts A = {apple pie, peach pie, pumpkin pie} and B = {cherry pie, blueberry pie,

pumpkin pie} is .

A. {pumpkin pie}

B. {apple pie, peach pie, cherry pie, blueberry pie}

C. {apple pie, peach pie, pumpkin pie, cherry pie, blueberry pie}

D. {apple pie, peach pie, pumpkin pie, cherry pie, blueberry pie, pumpkin pie}

30. The supply of an fact A, amid the illustration quantity S, is the fact consisting of .

A. All issues in A that are in S

B. All issues in S that are in A

C. All issues in S that are not in A

D. All issues in A that are not in S

31. For the illustration quantity S = {apple pie, cherry pie, peach pie, pumpkin pie}, what is the supply of A = {pumpkin pie, cherry pie}?

A. {apple pie}

B. {peach pie}

C. {apple pie, peach pie}

D. {pumpkin pie, cherry pie}

32. Assume the illustration quantity S = {win, forfeiture}. Select the valuable that fulfills the requirements of the boundaryation of haphazard.

A. P({win}) = 0.7, P({loss}) = 0.2

B. P({win}) = 0.7, P({loss}) = 0.3

C. P({win}) = 1.0, P({loss}) = 0.1

D. P({win}) = 0.5, P({loss}) = -0.5

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33. A haphazard grounded on cork resolution rather than on remark or identical sentence is best referred to

as a(n) .

A. A previousi haphazard

B. Experimental haphazard

C. Internal haphazard

D. None of the above

34. An analyst believes the haphazard that U.S. accumulation receipts exceed long-term municipal fastening receipts aggravate a 5-year date is grounded on identical rate. This pattern of haphazard is best characterized as a(n)

.

A. A previousi haphazard

B. Experimental haphazard

C. Objective haphazard

D. Internal haphazard

35. Which of the aftercited personates a internal haphazard?

A. The haphazard of rolling a 2 on a individual die is 1 in 6.

B. Grounded on a conducted test, the haphazard of incessant a crisis on an trickish invent is 0.6.

C. A skier believes she has a 10% haphazard of engaging a gold acquisition.

D. Grounded on spent remark, a overseer believes there is a 3-in-5 haphazard of retaining an employee for at smallest one year.

36. Which of the aftercited personates an testal haphazard?

A. The haphazard of incessant a crisis on a invent is 0.5.

B. The haphazard of rolling a 2 on a individual die is 1 in 6.

C. A skier believes she has a 0.10 haphazard of engaging a gold acquisition.

D. Grounded on spent remark, a overseer believes there is a 3-in-5 haphazard of retaining an employee for at smallest one year.

37. An analyst has a boundary ordain ungathered on a accumulation. He argues that the haphazard that the ordain conquer

execute antecedently the cork of trading is 0.20. Thus, the odds for the ordain executing antecedently the cork of

trading are .

A. 1 in 4

B. 1 in 5

C. 4 to 1

D. 5 to 1

38. After abundant investigation, an analyst asserts that there is an 80% haphazard that ABC Corporation conquer whack its

EPS prevent. Analogously, the odds for the posse whacking its EPS prevent are .

A. 1 in 4

B. 1 in 1.25

C. 4 to 1

D. 1.25 to 1

39. The odds for encountering rain on a 500-mile car bound are 3 to 1. What is the haphazard of rain on this bound?

A. 0.25

B. 0.33

C. 0.50

D. 0.75

40. The odds abutting engaging $1.00 in the lottery are 19 to 1. What is the haphazard of engaging $1.00 in the lottery?

A. 0.05

B. 0.0526

C. 0.90

D. 0.95

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41. An test consists of incessant three serene invents. What is the haphazard of incessant two tails?

A. 1/8

B. 1/4

C. 3/8

D. 1/2

42. Let , and . Count .

A. 0.2

B. 0.3

C. 0.9

D. Not sufficient knowledge to count.

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