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In a fair coin toss, the likelihood of getting either heads or tails is a solid 50/50 chance, as the possible outcomes are only either heads or tails. In this situation, the friend would not be correct. It’s not so much that they are “wrong” per se, but rather that there is not a reasonable footing to that claim. The probability of getting either heads or tails would remain the same, no matter if it were tossed an infinite number of times or just once or twice. With proportions used for summarizing previous observations, and probability for predicting future or uncertain outcomes, the probability would be written as p(heads) = ½ (Gravetter, Wallnau, Forzano & Witnauer, 2021).
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